Reliability based design optimization of casting process parameters using Markov chain model. A predictive Markov decision process for optimizing inspection and maintenance strategies of partially observable multi-state systems. Mission reliability model of spacecraft launch based on bisimulation of continuous-time Markov processes. An integrated assessment of safety and efficiency of aircraft maintenance strategies using agent-based modelling and stochastic Petri nets. Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review. An Accelerated Simulation Approach for Multistate System Mission Reliability and Success Probability under Complex Mission. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to report regarding the present study. After the maintenance is completed, the acquired occupied resources are returned, and the acquired consumable resources are used. The maintenance begins once support resources are fully secured. The equipment agents continuously monitor whether all support resources have been obtained after receiving the support resources. If the number of consumable resources meets the list requirements, the resources will be allocated in real-time, otherwise, the information that the support resources do not meet the requirements in this simulation will be recorded. If the number of occupied resources meets the list requirements, the resources will be allocated in real-time, otherwise, they will go into the queue of resources to be allocated and will be judged again when the next equipment returns the resources. In contrast, the simulation methods, which are based on the Monte Carlo method, are the methods for simulating the state and behavior of a system using stochastic tests and assessing the mission reliability in a computer, which to some extent solves the problem of calculating reliability under complex action laws.Īs shown in Figure 10, the equipment agents send a list of required support resources to all support resource agents in the event of a fault, and the support resource agents respond according to the list. The applicability of the methods is low, and the credibility and accuracy of the calculation results are insufficient, which makes these methods difficult to support the work requirements. The deficiencies of these methods lie in computational explosion, stringent requirements for failure rules, inadequate consideration of equipment support resources, and neglect of the impact of operating status on failure rates. Reliability block diagram and fault tree analysis are classical combinatorial model methods, while Petri net and the Markov process are common state space methods. Analytic methods mainly include combinatorial model methods and state space methods. There are two common types of reliability assessment methods: analytical methods and simulation methods. The influencing factors considered in the modeling and calculation of mission reliability are expanded in this study, which can provide technical support for the optimal allocation of shipboard equipment support resources during the use phase of a warship, and the supportability design of warship equipment during the development phase.īecause of the complex structure of warship equipment and the diversity of tasks and maintenance activities, it is very difficult to model and calculate the warship mission reliability considering the equipment support resources. In addition, sensitivity analyses of task parameters, equipment reliability structure, and the number of spare parts is carried out, and the effects on task reliability are discussed. The key metrics relevant to different task conditions, such as the mission reliability of multistage and multistate systems, and the number of recommended allocations of equipment support resources, can be calculated by the system. The simulation system has the characteristics of multielement, modular, flexible configuration and easy operation. To address the complex role of equipment support resource allocation on mission reliability during warship missions, this study establishes a warship mission reliability simulation system by using agent-based modeling to simulate warship task flow, equipment reliability structures, fault rules, and equipment support resource allocation schemes.
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